Japan LED Association (JLEDS) released a technical roadmap of high power white LEDs for use in lighting systems.
The roadmap shows the luminance efficiency, etc, until 2020 for each of the high efficiency models, which emit standard white light, the high color rendition models, which have improved color rendering properties, and the light bulb models, which output light in incandescent colors. According to the roadmap, a luminance efficiency of 150lm/W will be achieved in about 2015.
While highly efficient fluorescent lamps generally exhibit a luminance efficiency of about 100lm/W, the luminance efficiencies of the high efficiency model, the high color rendition model and the light bulb model are about 100lm/W, 80lm/W or higher, 100lm/W as of 2008. JLEDS forecasts that these figures will increase to about 130lm/W, about 120lm/W and 90lm/W or higher in 2010, and reach 160lm/W or higher, 140lm/W or higher and about 130lm/W in 2015.
JLEDS is a Japanese industrial organization that promotes LED-based lighting systems. The latest roadmap is a revised version of white LED technical roadmap released by the organization in September 2005. The roadmap is based on the outcome of a questionnaire that JLEDS conducted for its member companies.
The roadmap estimates that the LED lighting systems will be widely used mainly in commercial facilities around 2010, when the luminance efficiency exceeds 100lm/W. It also forecasts that the use of LED lighting will be promoted in offices and residences around 2015, when the quality of light, eg the color of light emitted from the white LED, is improved.
The estimated sales of LED lighting systems in Japan will be about ¥400 billion (US$3,838 million) in 2010 and about ¥800 billion in 2015.
The roadmap also discusses the issues for the promotion of LED lighting. Among them, it cites the cost problem as the biggest hurdle. An LED lighting system is reportedly 5-10 times more expensive than fluorescent lighting equipment or an HID system. This is because the price of light source per luminance (yen/lm) of a white LED is two orders of magnitude higher and the white LED lighting system additionally requires a heatsink, a power supply, a lens, etc.
Thus, it is important to make efforts to reduce the cost of not just the light source but also the peripherals, JLEDS said. The improvement of light quality is also unavoidable because color temperature and color rendering properties are highly valued in indoor lighting, according to the organization.
